Mayer's (1996, 2003a) model demonstrates, with a high degree of predictive success, that nominations are effectively decided before the Iowa caucuses. The model has correctly predicted nine of 11 contested presidential primaries for Republicans and Democrats since 1980. (The anomalies include Gary Hart in 1988 and Howard Dean in 2004.)

This model has two independent variables. First: The candidate must lead in the last Gallup poll before the Iowa caucuses. Second: The candidate must be the most effective fundraiser before the Iowa caucuses.

Mayer draws these conclusions: 1) The current nomination/primary system favors frontrunners; 2) Momentum is an over-rated factor in the process; 3) The frontrunner often stumbles, but these incidents are rarely fatal; 4) The longer we live with this system, the more we learn about it, and this works to the advantage of frontrunners; 5) Money is important, but it is not the whole ball game.

The factors of popularity and fundraising are crucial in the ubiquitous horse race style of political coverage. The news media themselves even pay for much of the polling. Governmentally collected and released fundraising figures offer the press an empirical measure of political legitimacy (at least among contributors). Mayer's model says nothing about how the press covers political campaigns. But my interpretation of his data argues that press coverage in the months prior to the primary election season is critical for a candidate's success even though many Americans do not begin paying close attention to the campaign until after the conventions.

One wonders what information citizens use to make up their minds as reflected in the polls taken during the year preceding the primaries. Is it the kind of information promised in the codes of ethics of professional journalism associations? As journalists themselves complain (Robertson & Papai, 2000), very little press coverage of a political campaign during the pre-election year focuses on the creation, implementation, and critique of policy (Hanson). At this early stage the campaign is a popularity contest based on name recognition and whatever political or personal image already exists in the public mind. Mayer's model demonstrates that the contest ends long before voters hear much about policy.

Continued...

< prev Page 2 of 6 next >

Article Tools